Jobless Rate Declines

Markets rose dramatically as the employment figures came in at 10%, down from 10.2%. However, the Bulls and Bears seem to be playing a game of 'Blink'. Nobody knows how to really evaluate this market given the high liquidity mixed with uncertainty about 2010. Remember, hold your ground in this game and don't blink first!

Markets Up This Week!

This week ended with all indexes up. Dow 9864.94, S&P500 1071.49, and the Nasdaq closed at 2139.28. Oil closed around $71.77 and the 10yr Treasury move up to 3.38% from around 3.18% earlier this week.

Next week is a big earnings week.

On Tuesday, Intel (INTC) estimates are around $0.27, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) estimates show $1.13.

Wednesday JP Morgan (JPM) is expected to report $0.49 and Xilinx estimates are for $0.22.

Thursday is a big earnings day for sure. AdvancedMicroDevices (AMD) - $0.42, Baxter (BAX) - $0.97, Citigroup (C) -$0.21, Cypress - $0.06, Google (GOOG) - $5.36, Harley-Davidson (HOG) - $0.21, IBM (IBM) - $2.38 and Nokia (NOK) - $0.18 .

Finally, on Friday General Electric (GE) estmates are for $0.20 and Bank of America (BAC) $0.06

Jim Cramer's speculation stock for this week is Novellus (NVLS) -remember, do your homework!

September-October Markets

As September ended and October began, Stockmarkets corrected in fear of Q3 earnings which begin on Wednesday(Oct 7, 2009) with our favorite punchbowl poop - Alcoa.
Last week markets ended down for small-cap Value stocks, materials, energy, financials, industrials, REITS, and telecom. Utilities are so near the bottom they were little changed.
The only strength was in consumer staples, tech, healthcare and consumer discretionary, by strength, I mean in comparison with other sectors with larger losses.

Bank of America ( Sym: BAC ) is sighing with relief as Ken Lewis is heading for the door taking potential questions and investigations with him. I think they may have actually set the door to hit him in the ass on the way out. In other words, "Hey - They killed Kenny! You Bastards!".

Markets: Pre Monday Opening Bell

Last week the S&P closed at 1068.30, Nasdaq at 2132.86, and the Dow closed at 9820.20.
This coming Thursday RIMM reports earnings and will affect how tech stocks end the week, or even the month.
Winners last week were Real Estate, Financials, Basic Materials, Energy and Emerging Markets. Small caps did well also, as did Industrials.
The slowness award goes to technology, which had a pretty good year so far.
Other laggards were Consumer Staples, Telecom, and Healthcare.
Bargain hunters will note that Utilities remain the weakest stocks in this market.

One Year Later at CNBC

Maria Bartiromo hosted this first in a series of shows on CNBC taking a look at last year's financial meltdown and it's possible causes. She interviewed four guests this Sunday(9pm CST)
starting with Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO John Mac. Mr. Mac describes a meeting with Secretary Paulson and nine others. Those at the meeting concluded that not bailing out Lehman Bros. would avoid "moral hazard" and should not cause significant problems in the market. Mac readily agrees that this was not the correct thing to do.
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink was Maria's second guest. Mr. Find was and is an advisor to the government regarding financial matters. He describes how the drop in the NAV of the money market fund was a pivotal moment for the markets. This decline in money market NAV was due to the collapse of Lehman Bros. A collapse in the money markets would halt significant amounts of short term credit available to corporations.
Barclay's Bob Diamond helped the British bank acquire the remaining fixed income business from Lehman Bros. and still feels it was a real bargain. This allowed Barclay's to increase their marketshare in the U.S. and worldwide as has been of great benefit to the bank's fixed income business.
Finally, Citi's CEO Vikram Pandit stated that the crises was mostly due to overleveraging by banks and individuals alike. He also expressed some concern about the effects of the shadow banking system.

More about this all month on CNBC.

Crazy 08's Market Conditions Persist

Bernard Madoff - Madoff W/50 billion in Ponzi scheme
Despite credible allegations dating back to 1999, No one fully investigated Bernard Madoff. Also, one of the SEC regulators married Madoff's niece. All in the family may or may not turn out to be the link to heads at the SEC turning the other way for Madoff and his secretive investment firm. More at wsj.com. A victim of the Madoff scam committed suicide last week after unsuccessfully trying to regain some of the over 1.3 Billion that he had invested with Madoff.
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FROM CNBC/WSJ WEEKLY REPORT W/MARIA BARTIROMO:
Credit Markets remain chilly and LIBOR has gone down some, easing the pain. But the economy is still performing poorly.
Economic advisors know that something is floating in the proverbial pool, but can't be sure if it's just a BabyRuth or a doodie. The Dallas' Federal Reserve Gov. was overheard saying, "We're fairly certain it's going to be a doodie..".

Unemployment is already at 6.7% and growing.
Oil is still below $50 and dropping..
FOMC Meeting Rate Drops from 0 to .25% -------------------------------------------------------
FROM CNBC- RE:FED ACTIONS IN DEC 2008:
JACK BOGLE - "I DON'T HAVE THE SAME LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT ALL IS NOW WELL.." "YOU CAN'T PUSH ON A STRING.."
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OIL CLOSES BELOW $42/BARREL------------------------------------------------------- Summary: 91% of the time, the first 5 days of January predict the restof the year. Jan as a whole is also considered the most bullish month of the year, therefore a down Jan is BEARISH. ------------------------------------------------------- Commodities in 2009:
According to the U.S. Farm Report, enthusiasm for growingcorn in 2009 has dropped dramatically. Soybeans look moreprofitable for 2009.
Fertilizer Prices in 2009
Unfortunately, many farmers and their suppiers are stuckwith various quantities of urea, and various other fertilizer products,at or near peak 2008 prices. These materials will effect operationsand costs in 2009 creating a lag in pricing, or losses for many farms and independant fertilizer dealers. EPA Fertilizer:
There is a consideration from the EPA to charge $87.50 per headof cattle based on the estimated number of farts that will beflatulated in the lifetime of this future steak w/legs. Based on this, shouldn't politicians pay a global warming fee for each word spoken to the public or while in office..
more at http://www.USFarmReport.com
More on these stories at http://www.nytimes.com http://www.cnbc.com http://www.wsj.com http://www.investors.com http://www.reuters.com http://www.USFarmReport.com http://www.agaryshilling.com/insight.html http://www.USFarmReport.com

Markets Monday Nov 3, 2008 September - October Scream Machine

All through September and October the markets went up and down enough to tire even the most enthusiastic roller coaster fanatic.The Dow did not break 10600 on Oct 31st, this is below a technical trend set in 1982 when the25 year bull market began. This is a very bearish signal to the U.S. markets. Also weighingin on Wall Street is the election, which will finally come to some ending on Tuesday or Wednesdaymorning. The banking system will remain in it's somewhat shaky place, but the creditors suchas Capital One and those like it will suffer an increase in defaults as the consumer pulls in the reins. Unemployment continues to rise and is expected to nearly double by this timenext year. We seem to be looking deflation right in the eye. This is different from anything we haveexperienced since the 1930's. I wasn't there, however. So now I try to figure out what happensto markets and companies when demand drops and so do prices and wages. As consumers put off purchases awaiting a lower price, how many companies can hold out as well. This says littleas to what will happen in export economies and countries dependant on natural resources ascommodities tumble to multi-year lows. Three interesting books on this subject are:
1. The Great Crash of 1929 John Kenneth Galbraith
2. Deflation A. Gary Shilling
3. New Paradigm for Financial Markets The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means - George Soros

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