Friday, October 09, 2009

Markets Up This Week!



This week ended with all indexes up. Dow 9864.94, S&P500 1071.49, and the Nasdaq closed at 2139.28. Oil closed around $71.77 and the 10yr Treasury move up to 3.38% from around 3.18% earlier this week.


Next week is a big earnings week.

On Tuesday, Intel (INTC) estimates are around $0.27, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) estimates show $1.13.


Wednesday JP Morgan (JPM) is expected to report $0.49 and Xilinx estimates are for $0.22.


Thursday is a big earnings day for sure. AdvancedMicroDevices (AMD) - $0.42, Baxter (BAX) - $0.97, Citigroup (C) -$0.21, Cypress - $0.06, Google (GOOG) - $5.36, Harley-Davidson (HOG) - $0.21, IBM (IBM) - $2.38 and Nokia (NOK) - $0.18 .


Finally, on Friday General Electric (GE) estmates are for $0.20 and Bank of America (BAC) $0.06


Jim Cramer's speculation stock for this week is Novellus (NVLS) -remember, do your homework!

Monday, October 05, 2009

September-October Markets

As September ended and October began, Stockmarkets corrected in fear of Q3 earnings which begin on Wednesday(Oct 7, 2009) with our favorite punchbowl poop - Alcoa.
Last week markets ended down for small-cap Value stocks, materials, energy, financials, industrials, REITS, and telecom. Utilities are so near the bottom they were little changed.
The only strength was in consumer staples, tech, healthcare and consumer discretionary, by strength, I mean in comparison with other sectors with larger losses.

Bank of America ( Sym: BAC ) is sighing with relief as Ken Lewis is heading for the door taking potential questions and investigations with him. I think they may have actually set the door to hit him in the ass on the way out. In other words, "Hey - They killed Kenny! You Bastards!".

Monday, September 21, 2009

Markets: Pre Monday Opening Bell

Last week the S&P closed at 1068.30, Nasdaq at 2132.86, and the Dow closed at 9820.20.
This coming Thursday RIMM reports earnings and will affect how tech stocks end the week, or even the month.
Winners last week were Real Estate, Financials, Basic Materials, Energy and Emerging Markets. Small caps did well also, as did Industrials.
The slowness award goes to technology, which had a pretty good year so far.
Other laggards were Consumer Staples, Telecom, and Healthcare.
Bargain hunters will note that Utilities remain the weakest stocks in this market.

Monday, September 14, 2009

One Year Later at CNBC

Maria Bartiromo hosted this first in a series of shows on CNBC taking a look at last year's financial meltdown and it's possible causes. She interviewed four guests this Sunday(9pm CST)
starting with Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO John Mac. Mr. Mac describes a meeting with Secretary Paulson and nine others. Those at the meeting concluded that not bailing out Lehman Bros. would avoid "moral hazard" and should not cause significant problems in the market. Mac readily agrees that this was not the correct thing to do.
Blackrock CEO Larry Fink was Maria's second guest. Mr. Find was and is an advisor to the government regarding financial matters. He describes how the drop in the NAV of the money market fund was a pivotal moment for the markets. This decline in money market NAV was due to the collapse of Lehman Bros. A collapse in the money markets would halt significant amounts of short term credit available to corporations.
Barclay's Bob Diamond helped the British bank acquire the remaining fixed income business from Lehman Bros. and still feels it was a real bargain. This allowed Barclay's to increase their marketshare in the U.S. and worldwide as has been of great benefit to the bank's fixed income business.
Finally, Citi's CEO Vikram Pandit stated that the crises was mostly due to overleveraging by banks and individuals alike. He also expressed some concern about the effects of the shadow banking system.

More about this all month on CNBC.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Crazy 08's Market Conditions Persist

Bernard Madoff - Madoff W/50 billion in Ponzi scheme
Despite credible allegations dating back to 1999, No one fully investigated Bernard Madoff. Also, one of the SEC regulators married Madoff's niece. All in the family may or may not turn out to be the link to heads at the SEC turning the other way for Madoff and his secretive investment firm. More at wsj.com. A victim of the Madoff scam committed suicide last week after unsuccessfully trying to regain some of the over 1.3 Billion that he had invested with Madoff.
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FROM CNBC/WSJ WEEKLY REPORT W/MARIA BARTIROMO:
Credit Markets remain chilly and LIBOR has gone down some, easing the pain. But the economy is still performing poorly.
Economic advisors know that something is floating in the proverbial pool, but can't be sure if it's just a BabyRuth or a doodie. The Dallas' Federal Reserve Gov. was overheard saying, "We're fairly certain it's going to be a doodie..".

Unemployment is already at 6.7% and growing.
Oil is still below $50 and dropping..
FOMC Meeting Rate Drops from 0 to .25% -------------------------------------------------------
FROM CNBC- RE:FED ACTIONS IN DEC 2008:
JACK BOGLE - "I DON'T HAVE THE SAME LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE THAT ALL IS NOW WELL.." "YOU CAN'T PUSH ON A STRING.."
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OIL CLOSES BELOW $42/BARREL------------------------------------------------------- Summary: 91% of the time, the first 5 days of January predict the restof the year. Jan as a whole is also considered the most bullish month of the year, therefore a down Jan is BEARISH. ------------------------------------------------------- Commodities in 2009:
According to the U.S. Farm Report, enthusiasm for growingcorn in 2009 has dropped dramatically. Soybeans look moreprofitable for 2009.
Fertilizer Prices in 2009
Unfortunately, many farmers and their suppiers are stuckwith various quantities of urea, and various other fertilizer products,at or near peak 2008 prices. These materials will effect operationsand costs in 2009 creating a lag in pricing, or losses for many farms and independant fertilizer dealers. EPA Fertilizer:
There is a consideration from the EPA to charge $87.50 per headof cattle based on the estimated number of farts that will beflatulated in the lifetime of this future steak w/legs. Based on this, shouldn't politicians pay a global warming fee for each word spoken to the public or while in office..
more at http://www.USFarmReport.com
More on these stories at http://www.nytimes.com http://www.cnbc.com http://www.wsj.com http://www.investors.com http://www.reuters.com http://www.USFarmReport.com http://www.agaryshilling.com/insight.html http://www.USFarmReport.com

Monday, November 03, 2008

Markets Monday Nov 3, 2008 September - October Scream Machine

All through September and October the markets went up and down enough to tire even the most enthusiastic roller coaster fanatic.The Dow did not break 10600 on Oct 31st, this is below a technical trend set in 1982 when the25 year bull market began. This is a very bearish signal to the U.S. markets. Also weighingin on Wall Street is the election, which will finally come to some ending on Tuesday or Wednesdaymorning. The banking system will remain in it's somewhat shaky place, but the creditors suchas Capital One and those like it will suffer an increase in defaults as the consumer pulls in the reins. Unemployment continues to rise and is expected to nearly double by this timenext year. We seem to be looking deflation right in the eye. This is different from anything we haveexperienced since the 1930's. I wasn't there, however. So now I try to figure out what happensto markets and companies when demand drops and so do prices and wages. As consumers put off purchases awaiting a lower price, how many companies can hold out as well. This says littleas to what will happen in export economies and countries dependant on natural resources ascommodities tumble to multi-year lows. Three interesting books on this subject are:
1. The Great Crash of 1929 John Kenneth Galbraith
2. Deflation A. Gary Shilling
3. New Paradigm for Financial Markets The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means - George Soros

Also Check Out Our BookShelves:

401k Investments Business and Finance Cramerica Bookshelf MutualFunds

Monday, October 13, 2008

ETFs May Be Best in Difficult Markets

ETFs, Funds And Shares: What Are They And What Are Their Benefits?
by: John McElborough


Exchange Traded Funds, better known by many investors as iShares, the brand owned by Barclays Global Investors ('BGI') have been around in the UK since April 2000, with the launch of the iFTSE100 on the London Stock Exchange. From a slow start, by the end of 2005 (the latest figures available), some 125 billion was held in assets under management. Generally, when you look for your share price information, you'll find them grouped in the extra MARK section, where you'll now find some 45 different ETFs on offer. Although they have been around for sometime, let's just remind ourselves how ETFs work. They are listed on the stock exchange, providing the flexibility and trade ability of a share, including the fact that the price is continuously quoted, but that one share can provide instant exposure to an entire Index, giving you the diversification benefits of a fund. ETFs are also a flexible way of achieving cost-effective market exposure. Because the funds are registered in Ireland, there is no stamp duty to be paid on purchases. Management costs are taken from dividends that are accrued by the fund, and any excess income is then distributed to shareholders: unlike unit trusts, there are no initial fees to pay on the original purchase. The price of the fund is always close to the 'Net Asset Value' (NAV) of the underlying investments and will usually have tight spreads, unlike some unit trusts and some investment trusts. Also ETFs will disclose their holdings everyday, whereas traditional funds usually disclose their holdings twice a year. What can I invest in? ETFs offer a wide range of opportunities for investment with varying levels of risk: as at mid-December there were 45 different markets/indices to invest in, ranging from corporate bonds to the Taiwanese market. Starting at the lower end of the risk spectrum there are several corporate bond ETFs, as well as some Gilt-based investments. Moving on to the medium risk level, you can choose from global funds to ones that are more specific to individual regions, such as the US or Asia. There's also the option of investing in individual indices: 'index trackers' are available for the UK's FTSE100 and 250 Indexes, the US S&P 500, or Europe's Euro first 100 & 80, spanning the top European companies. For those wanting a higher level of risk, there are also ETFs which will give you exposure to emerging markets, such as Turkey, Korea, Taiwan and Eastern Europe. ETFs don't offer the same wide variety as unit trusts, but for investing in the countries and sectors they do cover, their charging structure and trade ability make up for this. As such, they provide a good, low cost, easily-traded route into the market, with the flexibility to move up the risk ladder as your experience and capital grows. Finally, if you've an appetite for an even spicier approach, the London Stock Exchange also enables you to invest in commodities, through ETCs (Exchange Traded Commodities). Although like ETFs they are traded in the same way as shares, and are eligible to be held in a PEP or ISA, they do work in a completely different way. Whereas ETFs actually buy the underlying investments, ETC managers don't buy and store tons of wheat and copper, stack-up barrels of oil, or herd livestock into pens. Rather, they buy options on these commodities. As a result, ETCs are classed as more 'complex' investments by the FSA and you'll need to complete a special 'risk notice' confirming you understand the additional risks of investing in them. So take a fresh look at ETFs - you might just find they offer you more than you thought! Funds: take your pick of the best Unit Trusts and Open Ended Investment Companies (OEICs) are investments that let you pool your money with lots of other 'retail' investors. This money is invested on your behalf by a wide range of specialist fund managers, investing in, for example, Government gilts and bonds, commercial property and equities. Investing in funds gives you access to a highly-diversified range of investments at a reasonable cost. You will also have easy access to asset classes and international markets that would otherwise be difficult and expensive to invest in and benefit from the Fund Manager's contacts, knowledge, experience and expertise. Funds come in many shapes and sizes from 'trackers' to specialist or 'themed' funds. An index-tracking fund (often referred to as a 'passively managed fund') aims to match or 'track' the performance of a given market index, such as the FTSE All Share or the FTSE 100. They do this using computer programs to work out how much of each individual company they need to buy and sell to mimic the performance of the Index as a whole. But not all 'tracker funds' match the Index they are tracking that well - so be sure to check their record. An 'actively managed fund' on the other hand employs researchers to study and engage with companies in which they plan to invest, and to keep abreast of the prospects for companies in which they already invest. They'll compare their performance to a 'benchmark' index related to the investment objectives of their fund, with the expectation that the extra work they put into tracking down the 'best' investments will literally pay dividends through higher growth than that of their benchmark. Choosing your funds When you pick your funds, be sure to rate them against other funds that fish in the same waters. Don't expect a 'value' fund and a 'growth' fund to have similar track records. Only by comparing funds with their true peers will you make a good choice. Whilst past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance, past performance does matter when comparing like with like. Chasing winners however, is as dangerous as day-trading. Not surprisingly, all five of the top-performing funds at the end of 1999 were technology sector funds. Sector funds have a place in many a portfolio, but for the majority of investors they belong at its edges, not at its heart. An individual fund will give you a wider spread of underlying investments: by investing across a number of funds you're better able to smooth out the ups and downs of the market overall. But that won't work if it turns out that your funds hold virtually the same investments. So have a look at each fund report to see their top holdings and make sure you've got a good spread overall. Individual Company shares When it comes to the individual shares part of the investment model, the lowest risk entry point has always been recognised as companies in the FTSE 100. However, you should always bear in mind that the Index evolves over a period of time, changing its overall make-up. Consider, for example, that over the last 6 years technology shares have fallen out of the Index, while mining companies, on the back of booming commodity prices, have dramatically increased their presence. Yet, because of the volatility and cyclical nature of the sector, individual mining groups can't be classed as low risk. Other 'big names' have gone from the Index due to take-over activity - companies like P&O, Abbey National & BAA - all of which have to be replaced. Today, some 80% of the make-up of the overall value of the FTSE100 comes from just 5 sectors - Banking, Mining, Oil & Gas, Pharmaceuticals, and Telecoms (fixed and mobile). So, if you're looking to the Footsie to form the bedrock of your investment in individual shares, where should you start? Companies involved in essential, everyday products and services, such as the water and electricity utilities and broad-based retailers often provide a solid backbone to any share portfolio. You could argue, however, that the classic 'defensive' nature of utilities has recently been undermined by the number of take-overs within the sector. The share prices of the remaining companies have climbed to all-time highs, potentially increasing the level of risk. There is without doubt an appetite for the assured cash flow that utilities provide, and it's fair to say that a growing number of analysts agree it's hard to justify the current prices. Despite this, get your timing right, buying at the right price, and these sectors should still provide a strong base on which to build your individual holdings. To extend your scope, whilst still staying within a lower risk profile, your next ports of call should be into the banks, pharmaceuticals, tobacco and beverages sectors. Move on up to the intermediate, 'medium risk' level, and you've an increasing choice, including the remaining FTSE100 companies, dominated by the mining sector. The majority of shares in the FTSE250 would also fit into this 'medium risk' category. Still relatively large companies, it is these shares that have seen some of the biggest gains over the last 3 years, helping push the 250 Index to record levels in 2006. One noticeable difference between the FTSE250 compared to the FTSE100, is that companies here generally have less international exposure. When it comes to the consideration of risk, you can play this one of two ways: some argue that having the majority of profits coming from the UK provides for less risk, while others (including us) favour having fingers in as many regions as possible. Finally, at the higher end of the risk scale you find smaller companies and AIM quoted shares. These tend to be more volatile and less liquid than their larger cousins, factors that generally lead to wider bid/offer spreads. The AIM market has seen considerable growth over the last 10 years, partly because companies don't have to comply with the same stringent requirements of the main market. Often, private investors don't get a look-in as part of the flotation, having to wait until the shares start trading, so do pick your time and use stop-loss limits - that early flush of success isn't always carried through. One of the fastest growing sub-sectors within AIM is small mining and exploration groups, many of which are based abroad but have chosen to list in the UK. Because their prospects include a significant amount of 'hope' value, such companies will represent the very highest level of risk. Equally classified as higher-risk, though as a result of different factors, are shares in overseas companies. Household names like Volvo, Coca Cola and Johnson & Johnson are big names and big companies. The additional risk they bring for investors comes from the fact that the majority of their earnings are from overseas. So you face the added risk of changes in exchange rates. Over recent months, for example, the fall in the US$ would have had a big impact on the sterling value of dividends from US shares And when the companies you invest in are smaller ones, it's often harder to find reliable research and analysis, harder to track and compare performance, and harder to follow the news that affects the share price. True, most big UK names also trade globally, but as 'home market' companies they are well-researched, much commented upon and regularly feature in the UK business finance pages. That's not to say you shouldn't venture outside these shores - far from it - but you need to do so with your eyes open. That's why we see overseas shares as being more appropriate for investors asthey move up the experience ladder and once they've built a balanced portfolio. And it's also why, in general, we'd advise investing in market trackers and funds before moving into individual overseas shares.
About The Author
The Share Centre http://www.share.com/ offer information and advice on shares and http://www.share.com/webp/share.htm share dealing. Learn about the stock market, research shares and deal shares online.